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Old 21st March 2022, 09:33   #1096
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Default Re: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

Regarding the Ukraine opinion poll, it sounds like the Pakistani Media propaganda during the 1971 war. When the war ended, the average Pakistani was in disbelief.

I have been following this channel
Take a look at the comments from some of the former US Marines.

I keep wondering why the Russians simply didnít take out Zelinsky and any potential successor in his camp? It would have been a lot cheaper. Looks like they really want to strip off Ukraineís military capability to prevent it from being able to harm the Donbas region and pose any threats to Russia. Putin and Lavrov have also reiterated multiple times that they donít want a change of government in Ukraine. Looks like they want Zelinsky to continue and for the agreements to be signed by Ukraine under his government. It remains to be seen whether he will agree or flee and continue as a ruler in exile. That would deny the Russians the legitimacy of any agreements they might obtain from a new regime.

John Mearsheimer is one of the contemporary experts in international relations. He had predicted the current crisis years ago. I have seen many of his talks and interviews. Here is a concise edited version of his views on the current crisis.

Also, take a look at
Looks like a Ghost town. Its hard to imagine how people are surviving in the cold without power, water and food

Wonder where will the money come from to rebuild all this. Russia definitely canít fund this. Only China has the money to rebuild. But if it decides to step in, it will extract long term economic concessions. Through Central Asia, Ukraine could also become a land route for trade with Europe as an alternative to the Malacca Straits. CPEC isnít really going well for them. For the Americans, that would be an unanticipated strategic setback.
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Old 21st March 2022, 10:27   #1097
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Ukrainians are castrating Russian PoW. At Ukraine 24, the head of the military medical service, Gennadiy Druzenko talks about the fact that the order was given to castrate wounded Russian soldiers, because they are “cockroaches, not people”. The video has been made private on youtube. https://mobile.twitter.com/Levi_godm...59649684606977

Gennadiy Druzenko is a constitutional lawyer, politician, and activist from Ukraine. He is also Director for Central and Eastern Europe of Williams WorldWide Group. He was a Fulbright-Kennan Institute Research Scholar at the Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and a Research Fellow at the at the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law in Heidelberg, Germany.

Druzenko worked for the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine as a deputy director of the European and Comparative Law Center from 2001 to 2004 and for Ukrainian Parliament as the head of staff of the Committee on European Integration from 2010 to 2011.

He is also involved in redrafting the Ukrainian Constitution, a process initiated by Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine. Druzenko was hosted by Indiana University's Center for Constitutional Democracy in 2019. https://indianapublicmedia.org/profi...y-druzenko.php

Fakhrudin sharafmal, anchor of ukrainian channel 24 quotes adolf eichmann & calls for the killing of russian children. Text of his speech;

I know that as a journalist, I have to be objective, I have to be balanced, in order to report information to you with a cold heart, but to tell you the truth, it's very hard to hold on now, especially at a time like this, and since we are called Nazis, fascists, and so on in Russia, I will allow myself to quote Adolf Eichmann, who said that in order to destroy a nation, you must destroy, first of all, children.

Because if you kill their parents, the children will grow up and take revenge. By killing children-they will never grow up and the nation will disappear. The Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot kill Russian children because it is forbidden by the rules of war, and it is prohibited by various conventions, including the Geneva Convention. But I am not from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And when I get the chance to take out the Russians, I will definitely do it. Since you call me a Nazi, I adhere to the doctrine of Adolf Eichmann, and I will do everything in my power to ensure that you and your children never live on this earth. So that you can feel what it is like when innocent civilians die, so that you can feel all the pain and suffering, when you say"we didn't start the war, it was Putin, we didn't want this war". We didn't want it either. But you have to understand that it's about the victory of the Ukrainian people, not about peace. We need victory. And if we have to slaughter all your families to do it-I'll be one of the first to do it. Glory to the nation! And hope that there will never be such a nation as Russia and the Russians on this earth again. Because they are just scum who are destroying this land. If the Ukrainians have the opportunity, which they are basically doing right now, to destroy, to slaughter, to kill, to strangle the Muscovites. And I hope that everyone contributes and whacks at least one Moskal.

Last edited by Sran : 21st March 2022 at 10:28.
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Old 21st March 2022, 11:25   #1098
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Originally Posted by VK Dhanuka View Post
1. How many with opinion that Ukraine asked for it by choosing NATO would be comfortable with India razing down Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka etc if any one of our neighboring nations were to try for a China military base?
This point which everyone wants to claim as a justification for this war from an Indian perspective.

As others have pointed out the Pearl of strings strategy by China to encircle India, the answer to this problem is certainly not to mindlessly invade these countries as per the opinion of the bhpian sierrabravo. Moreover, most people wonít support a war where we are the aggressor and India being a much more globalised and well-connected country than Russia will suffer hard which I donít think our already poor citizens will take well to unless we are the defending party (keep in mind that most people in the forum constitute the upper middle class who form less than 5% of the population). Also it will be much harder to control the flow of information unlike Russia!

But thankfully, credit where itís due, our foreign policy has been taking care of this issue in quite a mature way. Sri Lanka despite being ruled by the pro-Chinese Rajapaksas is at the closest itís been with India thanks to Indian support during their current crisis while Bangladesh is amongst the most pro-India countries in the neighbourhood despite some rhetoric from our polity. Nepal has tried to act smart but even when they started claiming parts of India (certainly at the behest of China), the MEA responded in a very mature way.

Overall, I feel India is the model big brother country for how to treat their smaller neighbours with respect (unlike warmongers like the US, China or Russia) while using minor pressure points to achieve itís objectives (bringing a pro-Indian government in Sri Lanka in the last election or the blockade of Nepal). China tried dissing its neighbours and whatís the result? They are surrounded by US allies while pushing their biggest neighbour India to the closest itís been to the US since the early 60s.
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Old 21st March 2022, 12:08   #1099
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Originally Posted by Sran View Post
Ukrainians are castrating Russian PoW. At Ukraine 24, the head of the military medical service, Gennadiy Druzenko talks about the fact that the order was given to castrate wounded Russian soldiers, because they are ďcockroaches, not peopleĒ. The video has been made private on Youtube. https://mobile.twitter.com/Levi_godm...59649684606977

Gennadiy Druzenko is a constitutional lawyer, politician, and activist from Ukraine. He is also Director for Central and Eastern Europe of Williams WorldWide Group. He was a Fulbright-Kennan Institute Research Scholar at the Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C., and a Research Fellow at the at the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law in Heidelberg, Germany.

Druzenko worked for the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine as a deputy director of the European and Comparative Law Center from 2001 to 2004 and for Ukrainian Parliament as the head of staff of the Committee on European Integration from 2010 to 2011.
Ö
.
This gives an insight into the mindset of the current Ukrainian dispensation. They are trying to wage psychological war. If they actually do this, it would be a violation of Geneva convention in treatment of PoW. But I guess nobody gives a damn to written agreements anymore. Wish they had a more pragmatic leadership instead of an actor who is looking to make a stage out of a war.

The Russians are slowly raising the heat with the targeting of the barrack in Mykolaiv and the training center in Yavoriv with hundreds of lives lost in both attacks. But it looks like they will have to take a lot of lives to capture the cities. It will remain to be seen how determined they are to achieve their goals.

BTW, a question, who makes the decision to surrender? The local leader of the trapped forces or do they consult the HQ and if asked to fight till the last man they just comply? Whats the level of discretion in such situations. Can Someone from the military shed some light on this aspect? Is this where the Ukrainian propaganda might come in handy? Or does pride matter more than life for a soldier?
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Old 21st March 2022, 12:12   #1100
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Originally Posted by dragracer567 View Post
This point which everyone wants to claim as a justification for this war from an Indian perspective.

As others have pointed out the Pearl of strings strategy by China to encircle India, the answer to this problem is certainly not to mindlessly invade these countries as per the opinion of the bhpian sierrabravo. Moreover, most people won’t support a war where we are the aggressor and India being a much more globalised and well-connected country than Russia will suffer hard which I don’t think our already poor citizens will take well to unless we are the defending party (keep in mind that most people in the forum constitute the upper middle class who form less than 5% of the population). Also it will be much harder to control the flow of information unlike Russia!

But thankfully, credit where it’s due, our foreign policy has been taking care of this issue in quite a mature way. Sri Lanka despite being ruled by the pro-Chinese Rajapaksas is at the closest it’s been with India thanks to Indian support during their current crisis while Bangladesh is amongst the most pro-India countries in the neighbourhood despite some rhetoric from our polity. Nepal has tried to act smart but even when they started claiming parts of India (certainly at the behest of China), the MEA responded in a very mature way.

Overall, I feel India is the model big brother country for how to treat their smaller neighbours with respect (unlike warmongers like the US, China or Russia) while using minor pressure points to achieve it’s objectives (bringing a pro-Indian government in Sri Lanka in the last election or the blockade of Nepal). China tried dissing its neighbours and what’s the result? They are surrounded by US allies while pushing their biggest neighbour India to the closest it’s been to the US since the early 60s.
I think you mis-understood my post. I meant to convey that Indian will certainly invade if it DOES NOT have any other option left. The Bhpian I was replying to presented a worst case scenario and I responded aptly. Of course, military conflict will hurt India the most and in that way, I am a pacifist as I am dead opposed to any military intervention by India in general.

Like you said, Indian diplomacy has been playing the game (and reasonably well at that) of thwarting the designs of a much more powerful opponent (China) in our neighbourhood from quite some time now but I am afraid that we are playing a losing game and I will state the reasons as to why I think so:

1.) Our neighbours have always thrived on playing India against China in order to extract the maximum possible gain for themselves. And that is fair and totally understandable. In order to do that, they often stoke anti-Indian sentiments in their populace in order to show that their decisions have popular support (we do that too btw, Vajpayee ji encouraged communist leaders to increase their protests against accepting US request for Indian troops in Afghanistan).

2.) However, an unintended consequence of the above is that certain inimical forces took over such issue based protests and main-streamed Anti-Indian sentiments (along with liberal backing from some people within India) in the country. As a result, be it Nepal/Bangladesh/Sri Lanka, you will find widespread Anti-Indian sentiments in the local population (Especially the youth).

3.) As all these countries as ostensibly democratic, the next generation of leaders (permanent as well as political) have been groomed in the midst of all the above. What do you think their policies will be? You singled out Bangladesh as an example of India's successful foreign policy and you are mostly right. However, Sheikh Hasina is not going to be there forever. Look 10-15 years down the line and calculate the trajectory our relations with Bangladesh will take once the next-generation leadership takes charge. Also, with Bangladesh, there is another factor, which I choose not to discuss on this forum (one which it shares with our Western neighbour), which is going to further complicate this sphere.

Hence, what I (and a lot of much more distinguished experts in this field) am advocating is that in consonance with the carrot and stick approach, it is extremely necessary to keep the stick oiled and ready for the worst case scenario while we are trying to prevent strife by offering the carrot first.

P.S: You greatly underestimate the average Indian's gumption. Like I wrote earlier, India will never officially be the aggressor (as per official accounts, Pakistan was the aggressor in 1971. Yet, we know better). Our actions will be termed as defensive-offense or something like that. Let's hope it never comes to that though.

Last edited by Axe77 : 21st March 2022 at 15:03. Reason: Minor typo. As requested.
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Old 21st March 2022, 13:07   #1101
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Originally Posted by Samurai View Post
I hear he is centuries old.
Yeah, his latest gaffe



For those who could not watch video, he tried to tell Second gentlemen has contracted COVID but ended up telling Husband of the First lady contracting COVID which is himself, then trying to correct with 'First gentlemen' who did not exist in US history.

At this rate, he will soon confuse 'Zelensky' with one (in)famous 'Lewinsky' from the past.

PS: This is just a light-hearted post just to bring a little smile in this emotionally charged thread. Mods - Please delete if it is OT and inappropriate.
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Old 21st March 2022, 13:45   #1102
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Originally Posted by Poitive View Post
Could they know something we don't, or are the Ukrainians believing their own propaganda, or is this simply a compromised poll to keep the morale high?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sierrabravo98 View Post
The Ukrainians' need to believe such delusions can be seen as a coping mechanism. How else can they survive seeing their country being bombed back to the stone age?
Exactly what I was indicating in the last of the 3 options.

Further, it also helps keeps the country together. Believing that they are doomed would make Zelensky's decision to continue fighting more questionable and reduce support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SnS_12 View Post
How do you even conduct a poll in war situation like this?
Not too long back have we've had 'phone polls' in our country too, and results used for decisions to form a government. (Let us not get into that discussion as it would be sensitive and the part of politics highly avoidable on the forum.)

With phones and internet working in most parts of Ukraine it wouldn't be difficult to have a poll. A lot of the country is not under bombardment. Having a good poll with a suitable sample is rather unlikely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnS_12 View Post
When the war began Zelensky said that he has been told that he is the top person on the Russian hit list to be killed followed by his family. But, still we see video’s of him moving around on the streets.
There are questions raised on their authenticity all the time. Sample one here:
Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war-ukraine-green-screen-video-claim.jpg
Link with the questionable video. https://twitter.com/_ruskadevushka_/...3641585176576/
The colour temperature variation could be due to additional lights on the subject, but I'm more inclined to believe the video is fake and made with a green screen.
Any VFX speciallist or enthusiast on the forum who could give an opinion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnS_12 View Post
Also the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic went and met him in person and the world already knew about this visit through the media.
This too was questioned. IIRC based on some signs on the door and also the train station (claimed that it was in Poland) based on floor pattern and other surrounding stuff.

Edit: Of course, the above could simply be the Russian system trying to discredit their opposition. War time, especially, one shouldn't trust news and views easily.

Last edited by Poitive : 21st March 2022 at 13:57. Reason: Refinement, very minor content addition.
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Old 21st March 2022, 14:04   #1103
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Twitter is awash with claims of Ukrainian national guards torturing civilians in public. Scroll to see lot more. Very graphic stuff, don't click if you don't want to see it.

https://twitter.com/WithyGrove/statu...94109916569605

Any truth to this? Without knowing the language, it is hard to fact check anything.
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Old 21st March 2022, 14:22   #1104
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The internet is full of such torture stories. Prisoners of War are a great bargaining chip for the Ukrainians, so I wonder whether somebody in a sane mind would commit such atrocities. But it is interesting that the same people who grinned in glee when Putin invaded Ukraine is in outrage mode over questionable videos of a couple of Putin's soldiers being tortured.

Sounds kind of - crapping on somebody's lawn and then complaining that they weren't provided a toilet roll.

Well, PoW should be dealt with according to international law, so there is no justification for these acts, but to complain there has to be some integrity left. Well, this isn't even a war - this is an aggression on a weak country by a bully, so its naÔve to expect leniency from the Ukrainians.

Fans of the bully should tone down the outrage.
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Old 21st March 2022, 14:48   #1105
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Zelenski is not in kyiv. Even the so called leaders of Poland and other countries going to kyiv is fake, why would they risk their lives to go to a active warzone. No countries secret service would allow them.

Some one on twitter also showed a video crop of Zelenski visit to the hospital and the electrical socket matches the one in poland and not the one in ukraine.

Then there is also this,
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022...-not-kiev.html



Ukraine armed forces which include Azov Nazi ,even tied up their own citizens naked to the pole. One ukrainen soldier was tied in chains to a pole with a anti armor weapon, in path of a russian convoy. The story behind that was he was trying to desert the battle. He was found by russians frozen to death.

Last edited by aim120 : 21st March 2022 at 14:52.
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Old 21st March 2022, 14:49   #1106
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Default Re: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samurai View Post
Twitter is awash with claims of Ukrainian national guards torturing civilians in public.
Adding for context:
Not sure if it is commonly known that the Azov Battalion is a part of the National Guards.
Quote:
On 12 November 2014, Azov was incorporated into the National Guard of Ukraine, and since then all members have been official soldiers serving in the National Guard.
Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samurai View Post
Any truth to this? Without knowing the language, it is hard to fact check anything.
Very difficult to acertain the truth when the propaganda/narrative machines of both sides are in overdrive.

There are all sorts of claims found on Twitter, including videos. Including how Ukrainians were not allowed to evacuate as their own forces stopped them, indicating potential use as human shields (or to build a narrative, as I had mentioned in my first post on the thread). During wartime, and with the kind of technology available, it is hard to trust most such sources.

Edit: Found the tweet mentioned above. Also claims that Ukrainian army was shooting at buildings.
Link: https://twitter.com/stillgray/status...8870635597831/
Attached Thumbnails
Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war-ukraine-refugee-claim.jpg  


Last edited by Poitive : 21st March 2022 at 14:55.
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Old 21st March 2022, 16:30   #1107
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Originally Posted by vishnurp99 View Post
... The poll is just propoganda and may be aimed more at western and US politicians to ensure that the guns/money keep coming in.
Decision makes for such would have way more ability than to simply fall for such polls and narratives. They are bacjed by intel, history, profiling and interests of most important people involved, ground reports, think tanks/whole departments at work, and a lot more. I can't see them being as gullible for their decisions of funding and arming. Maybe we underestimate the complexity and behind-the-scenes details which go into such affairs.

The poll, however, might be useful to influence masses (and a section of armed forces). It might make it a trifle easier for the Western leaders to sell the idea of funding and arming Ukraine with their tax money, however. Selling of ideas is important in a democracy.

Edit: @mods, while the posts are back to back, they are well apart in time and especially the points addressed. Might be more readable an easier to quote as separate posts.

Last edited by Poitive : 21st March 2022 at 16:33.
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Old 21st March 2022, 18:43   #1108
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Germany Announces Energy Deal With Qatar.

Link
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Old 21st March 2022, 22:20   #1109
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An article from 2015 which is still relevant to current war and happenings:
https://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war

An excerpt from that article:
Joseph Nye, the dean of Harvard University's school of government and one of America's most respected international relations scholars, pointed out that Russia's weakness-masking aggression was yet another disturbing parallel to the buildup to World War I.
"Russia seems doomed to continue its decline ó an outcome that should be no cause for celebration in the West," Nye wrote in a recent column. "States in decline ó think of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1914 ó tend to become less risk-averse and thus much more dangerous."
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Old 21st March 2022, 23:40   #1110
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Guess the Russians have given their final opportunity to Ukraine to surrender, which obviously they cannot and US will ensure that they donít as then they will end up loosing as well.

Hence, the Russians are now using their more sophisticated and lethal weaponry like the Kinzhal.

Also, Biden is heading to Poland on Friday. Why Poland but? Since on Thursday he is in Brussels where he will be meeting with NATO Allies, G7 Leaders and European Union Leaders to discuss international efforts to support war-ravaged Ukraine. So I am sure he could have asked Mr. Duda to come to Brussels instead, unless he wants to meet up with someone secretly. Hmmm. Wonder who that could be?
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